Nk’uko byatangajwe na S&P Global, kugabanuka kw'ibiciro, inganda zaho, ndetse no gukwirakwiza ingufu ni byo bitatu bya mbere mu nganda zishobora kongera ingufu muri uyu mwaka.
S&P Global yavuze ko gukomeza guhungabanya amasoko, guhindura intego z’amasoko y’ingufu zishobora kongera ingufu, ndetse n’ikibazo cy’ingufu ku isi mu 2022 ni zimwe mu nzira zigenda zihinduka mu cyiciro gishya cy’inzibacyuho y’ingufu muri uyu mwaka.
Nyuma yimyaka ibiri yibasiwe nogukwirakwiza amasoko, ibikoresho fatizo, nigiciro cyubwikorezi bizagabanuka mumwaka wa 2023, hamwe n’amafaranga yo gutwara abantu ku isi yagabanutse kugera ku cyorezo cy’icyorezo cya New Crown.S&P Global yavuze ko ariko iri gabanuka ry’ibiciro ritazahita risobanurwa mu bikorwa rusange by’imari shoramari mu mishinga y’ingufu zishobora kongera ingufu.
S&P Global yavuze ko kugera ku butaka no guhuza imiyoboro byagaragaye ko ari imbogamizi zikomeye mu nganda, kandi ko mu gihe abashoramari bihutira kohereza igishoro ku masoko adafite imiyoboro ihagije, bafite ubushake bwo kwishyura amafaranga menshi ku mishinga yiteguye kubakwa vuba, biganisha ku ingaruka zitateganijwe zo kuzamura ibiciro byiterambere.
Iyindi mpinduka izamura ibiciro ni ibura ry'abakozi bafite ubuhanga, bigatuma ibiciro by'ubwubatsi byiyongera, S&P Global yavuze ko, hamwe n'izamuka ry’ibiciro by’imari, bishobora gukumira igabanuka rikabije ry’ibiciro by’imishinga mu gihe cya vuba.
Ibiciro bya PV biragabanuka vuba kurenza uko byari byitezwe mu ntangiriro za 2023 kuko ibikoresho bya polysilicon biba byinshi.Uku gutabarwa gushobora gushungura kugeza kubiciro bya module ariko byitezwe ko bizarangizwa nababikora bashaka kugarura imipaka.
Hasi mumurongo wagaciro, marge ziteganijwe kunozwa kubashiraho n'ababitanga.S&P yavuze ko ibi bishobora kugabanya inyungu zo kugabanya ibiciro kubakoresha izuba riva hejuru.ni abategura imishinga-yingirakamaro izunguka byinshi kubiciro biri hasi.s & P iteganya ko isi ikenera ibikorwa byingirakamaro-imishinga igenda yiyongera, cyane cyane mumasoko azamuka cyane.
Mu 2022, izuba ryakwirakwijwe rishimangira umwanya waryo nk’isoko ryiganje mu gutanga amashanyarazi ku masoko menshi akuze, kandi S&P Global iteganya ko ikoranabuhanga ryaguka mu bice bishya by’abaguzi kandi rikagera ikirenge mu ku masoko mashya mu 2023. Biteganijwe ko sisitemu ya PV izarushaho guhuzwa na kubika ingufu nkuko bisangiwe nizuba risohoka kandi ubwoko bushya bwurugo hamwe nubucuruzi buciriritse bizashobora guhuza na gride.
Kwishyura imbere bikomeje guhitamo gushora imari mumishinga yo murugo, nubwo abakwirakwiza amashanyarazi bakomeje gusunika ibidukikije bitandukanye, harimo gukodesha igihe kirekire, gukodesha igihe gito, n'amasezerano yo kugura amashanyarazi.Izi ngero zo gutera inkunga zoherejwe muri Amerika mu myaka icumi ishize kandi biteganijwe ko zizagera no mu bihugu byinshi.
Abakiriya b’ubucuruzi n’inganda nabo bategerejweho kurushaho gutera inkunga igice cyagatatu kuko iseswa riba ikibazo gikomeye mubigo byinshi.S&P Global ivuga ko imbogamizi ku batanga serivisi z’abandi bantu batewe inkunga na PV ari ugusezerana n'abantu bazwi.
Muri rusange ibidukikije bya politiki biteganijwe ko byongera umusaruro ukwirakwizwa, haba mu nkunga y'amafaranga, kugabanya umusoro ku nyongeragaciro, inkunga yo kugabanyirizwa imisoro, cyangwa amahoro yo kurinda igihe kirekire.
Inzitizi z’itangwa ry’ibibazo hamwe n’umutekano w’igihugu byatumye abantu barushaho kwibanda ku bijyanye n’inganda zikomoka ku mirasire y’izuba n’ububiko, cyane cyane muri Amerika n’Uburayi, aho kwibanda ku kugabanya gushingira kuri gaze gasanzwe yatumijwe mu mahanga yashyize ibivugururwa hagati y’ingamba zo gutanga ingufu.
Politiki nshya nk'Itegeko ryo kugabanya ifaranga rya Leta zunze ubumwe za Amerika hamwe na REPowerEU yo mu Burayi rikurura ishoramari rikomeye mu bushobozi bushya bwo gukora, ari naryo rizatera imbaraga zo kohereza.S&P Global iteganya ko umushinga wo kubika umuyaga, izuba, na batiri ku isi uzagera kuri 500 GW mu 2023, ukiyongera hejuru ya 20 ku ijana mu bikorwa 2022.
S&P Global yagize ati: "Nyamara impungenge zikomeje kugaragara ku Bushinwa bwiganje mu gukora ibikoresho - cyane cyane izuba na batiri - ndetse n'ingaruka zitandukanye ziterwa no kwishingikiriza cyane ku karere kamwe kugira ngo zitange ibicuruzwa bikenewe."
Igihe cyo kohereza: Gashyantare-24-2023